FPM

5 min read · Updated May 2026

What are prediction markets?

A plain-English primer on event-trading exchanges — how they work, who regulates them, and how a Florida player makes a first trade.

Key takeaways

  • › A prediction market is an exchange where YES/NO contracts on future events trade between users.
  • › Prices (0–100¢) directly imply probability: 65¢ = 65% crowd-implied chance.
  • › Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and legal in all 50 states.
  • › Florida users have three solid options: Kalshi, Polymarket, and Rebet.

How prediction markets work

A prediction market lists a question with a clear YES or NO outcome — for example, "Will a major hurricane make Florida landfall this season?" Traders buy YES or NO shares. Each contract pays $1 if the outcome is correct and $0 if not. The price you pay (say, 62¢ for YES) is the market's implied probability that the event happens.

Why Floridians care

Florida is the most hurricane-exposed state, holds nationally-watched elections, and is home to four major pro sports teams. That makes it one of the most active states for U.S. event trading — and many markets are written specifically around Florida outcomes.

Are prediction markets legal in Florida?

Kalshi is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and legal nationwide, including Florida. Polymarket operates under a different framework — verify your eligibility before depositing. Rebet uses a sweepstakes model.

How to make your first trade

  1. Pick a platform — for most Florida users, Kalshi is the simplest start.
  2. Create an account and complete identity verification.
  3. Deposit USD (Kalshi/Rebet) or USDC stablecoin (Polymarket).
  4. Browse markets, pick one, choose YES or NO, set your size.
  5. Hold to settlement or sell early at the live price.

Ready to try it?

Kalshi is the easiest, most regulated entry point for Florida players.

Open a Kalshi account

Risk and responsible play

Prediction markets involve real money and real risk of loss. Never trade with money you can't afford to lose. If trading stops feeling fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or text 988 for free, confidential support.

Prediction market FAQ

Short, direct answers — the stuff Florida players actually ask.

A prediction market is an exchange where you buy and sell YES/NO contracts on real-world events. Prices reflect the crowd-implied probability of an outcome — a contract trading at 65¢ implies a 65% probability.

Start trading on Kalshi