5 min read · Updated September 2, 2026
What are prediction markets?
Quick answer
Quick answer
A prediction market is an exchange where a contract pays $1 if an event happens and $0 if it doesn't, so the live price (0–100¢) is the crowd's real-money probability. Florida residents can trade them on Kalshi in USD, Polymarket US in USD, or Rebet as a social sweepstakes app.
A plain-English primer on event-trading exchanges — how they work, who regulates them, and how a Florida player makes a first trade.
Key takeaways
- › A prediction market is an exchange where YES/NO contracts on future events trade between users.
- › Prices (0–100¢) directly imply probability: 65¢ = 65% crowd-implied chance.
- › Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to eligible users in most states.
- › Florida users have three solid options: Kalshi, Polymarket, and Rebet.
How prediction markets work
A prediction market lists a question with a clear YES or NO outcome — for example, "Will a major hurricane make Florida landfall this season?" Traders buy YES or NO shares. Each contract pays $1 if the outcome is correct and $0 if not. The price you pay (say, 62¢ for YES) is the market's implied probability that the event happens.
Why Floridians care
Florida is the most hurricane-exposed state, holds nationally-watched elections, and is home to four major pro sports teams. That makes it one of the most active states for U.S. event trading — and many markets are written specifically around Florida outcomes.
Are prediction markets legal in Florida?
Kalshi is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and available to eligible users, including in Florida. Polymarket operates under a different framework — verify your eligibility before depositing. Rebet uses a sweepstakes model.
How to make your first trade
- Pick a platform — for most Florida users, Kalshi is the simplest start.
- Create an account and complete identity verification.
- Deposit USD on Kalshi, Polymarket US or Rebet.
- Browse markets, pick one, choose YES or NO, set your size.
- Hold to settlement or sell early at the live price.
Ready to try it?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated entry point for eligible Florida users; use code FLPREDICTS to access the current trade $25, get $25 offer if eligible.
Trade $25, get $25 on KalshiCertain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Risk and responsible play
Prediction markets involve real money and real risk of loss. Never trade with money you can't afford to lose. If trading stops feeling fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or text 988 for free, confidential support.