Florida Hurricane & Weather Prediction Markets

Quick answer

Florida weather markets settle on official data — NOAA National Hurricane Center advisories and recorded temperature readings. Kalshi carries the broadest USD-settled hurricane and Miami temperature coverage; Polymarket adds season-long storm-count markets.

Key takeaways

›Kalshi is the primary U.S. venue for regulated hurricane contracts.
›Atlantic season runs June 1 – November 30; peak is Aug–Oct.
›Markets settle on official NOAA / NHC data.
›Daily temperature and rainfall markets are available for Miami.

Where to trade weather

The platforms below are ranked by liquidity, regulatory clarity, and weather coverage for Florida users.

Polymarket

CFTC-regulated US app · deposit $10, get $25

A global prediction market, now live in the U.S. as a CFTC-regulated exchange. Trade politics, sports, crypto and culture in dollars from the app — new users deposit $10 and get a $25 trading bonus with code FLPREDICTS.

Deposit $10, get a $25 trading bonus (code FLPREDICTS)
CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization
Deepest liquidity in prediction markets worldwide
Available in eligible states

Claim $25 bonus

18+. Polymarket US is CFTC-regulated. Trading is risky; 100% loss can occur. #sponsored

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Trade $25, get $25

Kalshi

A CFTC-designated exchange since November 2020.

Trade real-money event contracts on elections, weather, economics and sports — new users trade $25 and get $25 with code FLPREDICTS.

Trade $25, get $25 (code FLPREDICTS, new users)
CFTC-regulated exchange, real USD payouts
Strong on weather, hurricanes & economics
Web and mobile — available to eligible Florida users

Trade $25, get $25

New users only. 18+. Regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Event contract trading involves significant risk. #sponsored

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Trade $50, get $75

ProphetX

Sports prediction market · Trade $50, Get $75

A CFTC-licensed sports prediction market operating in 49 states plus D.C., with live contracts on football, basketball, baseball, hockey, soccer and other sports. New users can trade $50 and get $75 with code FLPREDICTS, subject to the current offer terms.

Trade $50, get $75 with code FLPREDICTS
CFTC-licensed prediction market operating in 49 states plus D.C.
Sports contracts across major leagues and events
Available in listed eligible states; verify your account before trading

Trade $50, get $75

New users only. 18+. Trading involves significant risk. Offer terms apply. #sponsored

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at ProphetX. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. ProphetX products are not available in all jurisdictions. See ProphetX terms for more information.

Rebet

Social sports predictions · ranked #4

A social-first platform for peer-to-peer sports predictions and casual play. It remains a lighter on-ramp for first-time players, but ranks below the regulated exchanges and ProphetX on our site.

Social, peer-to-peer sports predictions
Sports and entertainment focus
Mobile-first experience
Ranked #4 on our current comparison

Eligibility rules apply. 21+. Review the platform's current terms before participating. #sponsored

Sources

Frequently asked questions

Can I trade on Florida hurricane landfall?

Yes. Kalshi runs active markets every Atlantic hurricane season on named-storm counts, major-hurricane landfalls, and specific U.S. state landfalls including Florida, subject to current product and account eligibility. These are among the most-traded weather contracts in the U.S.

When does hurricane season run?

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs June 1 through November 30, with peak activity from mid-August through October. Florida is the most landfall-prone state, which makes these markets especially active.

How are hurricane markets settled?

Kalshi settles hurricane markets based on official NOAA / National Hurricane Center data. Contracts pay $1 if the YES condition occurs, $0 if not.

Are there markets on temperature or rainfall?

Yes. Kalshi lists daily and monthly markets on temperatures in major U.S. cities including Miami, along with seasonal precipitation and climate-anomaly contracts.

Already have Kalshi? Add a second app

OG: Trade $25 Get $50 in Rewards! (New users only) (code FLPREDICTS) · 42 states + D.C. Claim on OG (opens in a new tab)
Paid partnership with OG. Terms and conditions apply. Trading derivatives involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Availability subject to jurisdictional limitations. For more information, visit: OG.com.
ProphetX: Trade $50, Earn $75! (code FLPREDICTS) · 49 states + D.C. Claim on ProphetX (opens in a new tab)
New users only. T&Cs apply. ProphetX's minimum age is 18 (or the local age of majority if higher); we recommend 21+. Not available in Nevada. Trading involves risk.