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Florida weather markets

Trade hurricanes & Florida weather

Last updated

Florida sees more hurricane landfalls than any other state — and Kalshi runs the largest U.S. market on whether the next storm hits. Live odds on landfall, season severity, and Miami temperatures.

Quick answer

Florida weather markets settle on official data — NOAA National Hurricane Center advisories and recorded temperature readings. Kalshi carries the broadest USD-settled hurricane and Miami temperature coverage; Polymarket adds season-long storm-count markets.

Key takeaways

  • ›Kalshi is the primary U.S. venue for regulated hurricane contracts.
  • ›Atlantic season runs June 1 – November 30; peak is Aug–Oct.
  • ›Markets settle on official NOAA / NHC data.
  • ›Daily temperature and rainfall markets are available for Miami.

Live weather markets

kalshi12,880 contracts

When will Ukraine hold a presidential election? — Before 2027

16¢YES
kalshi2,006 contracts

When will Ukraine hold a presidential election? — Before 2028

28¢YES

Where to trade weather

The platforms below are ranked by liquidity, regulatory clarity, and weather coverage for Florida users.

Editor's Pick

Polymarket

CFTC-regulated US app · deposit $10, get $50

The world's largest prediction market, now live in the U.S. as a CFTC-regulated app. Trade politics, sports, crypto and culture in dollars from the iOS app — new users deposit $10 and get a $50 trading bonus with code FLPREDICTS.

  • Deposit $10, get a $50 trading bonus (code FLPREDICTS)
  • CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization
  • Deepest liquidity in prediction markets worldwide
  • Available in eligible states — iOS app only
Claim $50 bonus

18+. Polymarket US is CFTC-regulated. iOS app only. Trading is risky; 100% loss can occur. #sponsored

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Trade $25, get $25

Kalshi

CFTC-regulated · trade $25, get $25

The first U.S. federally regulated prediction market. Trade real-money event contracts on elections, weather, economics and sports — new users trade $25 and get $25 with code FLPREDICTS.

  • Trade $25, get $25 (code FLPREDICTS, new users)
  • CFTC-regulated exchange, real USD payouts
  • Strong on weather, hurricanes & economics
  • Web and mobile — available to eligible Florida users
Trade $25, get $25

New users only. 18+. Regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Event contract trading involves significant risk. #sponsored

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Rebet

Social sports predictions · ranked #4

A social-first platform for peer-to-peer sports predictions and casual play. It remains a lighter on-ramp for first-time players, but ranks below the regulated exchanges and ProphetX on our site.

  • Social, peer-to-peer sports predictions
  • Sports and entertainment focus
  • Mobile-first experience
  • Ranked #4 on our current comparison
Sign up on Rebet

Eligibility rules apply. 21+. Review the platform's current terms before participating. #sponsored

Trade hurricanes & Florida weather FAQ

Short, direct answers — the stuff Florida players actually ask.

Yes. Kalshi runs active markets every Atlantic hurricane season on named-storm counts, major-hurricane landfalls, and specific U.S. state landfalls including Florida, subject to current product and account eligibility. These are among the most-traded weather contracts in the U.S.

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