Live odds · politics
Brazil Presidential Election
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Quick answer
As of today, "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election" trades at 54% YES on Polymarket (46% NO), with $150.4M in total volume. Eligible Florida traders can also find related event contracts on Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated and settles in USD.
Top outcome
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
24h volume
$466K
Total volume
$150.4M
Resolves in
18 days
Oct 4, 2026
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Live odds
| Outcome | YES | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 54¢ | Trade |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 45¢ | Trade |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 2¢ | Trade |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ | Trade |
Odds from Polymarket's public API, cached 5 minutes. Refresh for the latest.
Take a position
Polymarket US is our #1 pick for this market when eligible Florida traders want deep books, USD settlement and an advertised $0 platform fee. Kalshi offers web access and a separate $25/$25 new-user offer for eligible users.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Welcome offer · Polymarket US
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New users: fund at least $10 in the Polymarket US app, enter the code, and get a $50 trading bonus.
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
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