Live odds · economics
Fed Decision in September?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Quick answer
As of today, "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting" trades at 51% YES on Polymarket (50% NO), with $100.1M in total volume. Eligible Florida traders can also find related event contracts on Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated and settles in USD.
Top outcome
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting
24h volume
$1.9M
Total volume
$100.1M
Resolves in
9 days
Sep 16, 2026
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Live odds
| Outcome | YES | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting | 51¢ | Trade |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting | 50¢ | Trade |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting | 1¢ | Trade |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting | 0¢ | Trade |
Odds from Polymarket's public API, cached 5 minutes. Refresh for the latest.
Take a position
Polymarket US is our #1 pick for this market when eligible Florida traders want deep books, USD settlement and an advertised $0 platform fee. Kalshi offers web access and a separate $25/$25 new-user offer for eligible users.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
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