Live odds · other
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answer
As of today, "Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026" trades at 77% YES on Polymarket (23% NO), with $7.5M in total volume. Eligible Florida traders can also find related event contracts on Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated and settles in USD.
Top outcome
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026
24h volume
$48K
Total volume
$7.5M
Resolves in
4 mo
Jan 1, 2027
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Live odds
| Outcome | YES | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026 | 77¢ | Trade |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026 | 5¢ | Trade |
| Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026 | 4¢ | Trade |
| Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026 | 2¢ | Trade |
| Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026 | 2¢ | Trade |
| Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026 | 1¢ | Trade |
| Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026 | 1¢ | Trade |
| Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026 | 1¢ | Trade |
| Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026 | 1¢ | Trade |
| Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026 | 1¢ | Trade |
| Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026 | 1¢ | Trade |
| Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
Odds from Polymarket's public API, cached 5 minutes. Refresh for the latest.
Take a position
Polymarket US is our #1 pick for this market when eligible Florida traders want deep books, USD settlement and an advertised $0 platform fee. Kalshi offers web access and a separate $25/$25 new-user offer for eligible users.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
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