Live odds · economics
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Quick answer
As of today, "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026" trades at 94% YES on Polymarket (6% NO), with $52.6M in total volume. Eligible Florida traders can also find related event contracts on Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated and settles in USD.
Top outcome
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
24h volume
$74K
Total volume
$52.6M
Resolves in
4 mo
Dec 31, 2026
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Live odds
| Outcome | YES | |
|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 | 94¢ | Trade |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026 | 6¢ | Trade |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 | 1¢ | Trade |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
Odds from Polymarket's public API, cached 5 minutes. Refresh for the latest.
Take a position
Polymarket US is our #1 pick for this market when eligible Florida traders want deep books, USD settlement and an advertised $0 platform fee. Kalshi offers web access and a separate $25/$25 new-user offer for eligible users.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Welcome offer · Polymarket US
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