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Israel closes its airspace by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

24h volume

$179K

Total volume

$16.8M

Resolves

May 31, 2026

Live odds

OutcomeYESNO
Israel closes its airspace by July 3113¢88¢Trade
Israel closes its airspace by July 158¢92¢Trade
Israel closes its airspace by June 305¢95¢Trade

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As of the latest update, "Israel closes its airspace by July 31?" is trading at 13% YES on Polymarket. Odds move continuously — see the live table above.

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