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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Top outcome

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026

9%YES · 92% NO

24h volume

$1K

Total volume

$8.4M

Resolves in

Resolved

Jun 30, 2026

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Updated Aug 19

Live odds

OutcomeYES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 20269¢Trade
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 20263¢Trade
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 20261¢Trade

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As of the latest update, "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?" is trading at 9% YES on Polymarket. Odds move continuously — see the live table above.

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