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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

24h volume

$243K

Total volume

$5.1M

Resolves

Jun 30, 2026

Live odds

OutcomeYESNO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 202624¢76¢Trade
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 202624¢76¢Trade
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 202616¢84¢Trade
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 20269¢92¢Trade
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 20261¢99¢Trade

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As of the latest update, "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?" is trading at 24% YES on Polymarket. Odds move continuously — see the live table above.

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