Live odds · weather
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Quick answer
As of today, "Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026" trades at 99% YES on Polymarket (1% NO), with $8.0M in total volume. Eligible Florida traders can also find related event contracts on Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated and settles in USD.
Top outcome
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026
24h volume
$23K
Total volume
$8.0M
Resolves in
4 mo
Jan 1, 2027
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Live odds
| Outcome | YES | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 | 99¢ | Trade |
| Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 | 97¢ | Trade |
| Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 | 87¢ | Trade |
| Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 | 85¢ | Trade |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 | 70¢ | Trade |
| Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 | 14¢ | Trade |
| Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 | 7¢ | Trade |
| Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 | 2¢ | Trade |
Odds from Polymarket's public API, cached 5 minutes. Refresh for the latest.
Take a position
Polymarket US is our #1 pick for this market when eligible Florida traders want deep books, USD settlement and an advertised $0 platform fee. Kalshi offers web access and a separate $25/$25 new-user offer for eligible users.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Welcome offer · Polymarket US
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New users: fund at least $10 in the Polymarket US app, enter the code, and get a $50 trading bonus.
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
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