Live odds · weather
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answer
As of today, "NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026" trades at 25% YES on Polymarket (76% NO), with $6.9M in total volume. Eligible Florida traders can also find related event contracts on Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated and settles in USD.
Top outcome
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026
24h volume
$9K
Total volume
$6.9M
Resolves in
4 mo
Jan 1, 2027
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Live odds
| Outcome | YES | |
|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 | 25¢ | Trade |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026 | 13¢ | Trade |
Odds from Polymarket's public API, cached 5 minutes. Refresh for the latest.
Take a position
Polymarket US is our #1 pick for this market when eligible Florida traders want deep books, USD settlement and an advertised $0 platform fee. Kalshi offers web access and a separate $25/$25 new-user offer for eligible users.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
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