Live odds · politics
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quick answer
As of today, "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31" trades at 7% YES on Polymarket (94% NO), with $29.4M in total volume. Eligible Florida traders can also find related event contracts on Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated and settles in USD.
Top outcome
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31
24h volume
$49K
Total volume
$29.4M
Resolves in
4 mo
Jan 1, 2027
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Live odds
| Outcome | YES | |
|---|---|---|
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31 | 7¢ | Trade |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30 | 1¢ | Trade |
Odds from Polymarket's public API, cached 5 minutes. Refresh for the latest.
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Polymarket US is our #1 pick for this market when eligible Florida traders want deep books, USD settlement and an advertised $0 platform fee. Kalshi offers web access and a separate $25/$25 new-user offer for eligible users.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
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