FPM

Live odds · politics

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

24h volume

$58K

Total volume

$26.9M

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Live odds

OutcomeYESNO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 3114¢87¢Trade
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? 3¢97¢Trade
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 301¢99¢Trade

Odds from Polymarket's public API, cached 5 minutes. Refresh for the latest.

Take a position

Kalshi: USD, CFTC-regulated, available in Florida. Polymarket: USDC, deeper liquidity on this kind of market.

Play responsibly

Prediction markets are real-money trading and you can lose your full stake. 21+ recommended. If trading stops feeling fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or text 988.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? — FAQ

Short, direct answers — the stuff Florida players actually ask.

As of the latest update, "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?" is trading at 14% YES on Polymarket. Odds move continuously — see the live table above.

Start trading on Kalshi