Live odds · politics
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Quick answer
As of today, "Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026" trades at 83% YES on Polymarket (17% NO), with $96.1M in total volume. Eligible Florida traders can also find related event contracts on Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated and settles in USD.
Top outcome
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026
24h volume
$14K
Total volume
$96.1M
Resolves in
4 mo
Dec 31, 2026
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Live odds
| Outcome | YES | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 83¢ | Trade |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 11¢ | Trade |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 1¢ | Trade |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026 | 1¢ | Trade |
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
Odds from Polymarket's public API, cached 5 minutes. Refresh for the latest.
Take a position
Polymarket US is our #1 pick for this market when eligible Florida traders want deep books, USD settlement and an advertised $0 platform fee. Kalshi offers web access and a separate $25/$25 new-user offer for eligible users.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
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