Live odds · economics
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Quick answer
As of today, "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026" trades at 39% YES on Polymarket (61% NO), with $6.9M in total volume. Eligible Florida traders can also find related event contracts on Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated and settles in USD.
Top outcome
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026
24h volume
$2K
Total volume
$6.9M
Resolves in
3 mo
Dec 9, 2026
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Live odds
| Outcome | YES | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026 | 39¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026 | 34¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026 | 19¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026 | 7¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026 | 4¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026 | 1¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026 | 1¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
Odds from Polymarket's public API, cached 5 minutes. Refresh for the latest.
Take a position
Polymarket US is our #1 pick for this market when eligible Florida traders want deep books, USD settlement and an advertised $0 platform fee. Kalshi offers web access and a separate $25/$25 new-user offer for eligible users.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
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