Live odds · other
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Quick answer
As of today, "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026" trades at 99% YES on Polymarket (1% NO), with $3.9M in total volume. Eligible Florida traders can also find related event contracts on Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated and settles in USD.
Top outcome
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026
24h volume
$84K
Total volume
$3.9M
Resolves in
7 days
Sep 30, 2026
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Live odds
| Outcome | YES | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 99¢ | Trade |
| Will Company A have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 50¢ | Trade |
| Will Company B have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 50¢ | Trade |
| Will Company C have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 50¢ | Trade |
| Will Company D have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 50¢ | Trade |
| Will Company E have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 50¢ | Trade |
| Will Company F have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 50¢ | Trade |
| Will Company G have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 50¢ | Trade |
| Will Company H have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 50¢ | Trade |
| Will Company I have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 50¢ | Trade |
| Will Company K have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 50¢ | Trade |
| Will any other company have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 50¢ | Trade |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 1¢ | Trade |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
| Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of September 2026 | 0¢ | Trade |
Odds from Polymarket's public API, cached 5 minutes. Refresh for the latest.
Take a position
Polymarket US is our #1 pick for this market when eligible Florida traders want deep books, USD settlement and an advertised $0 platform fee. Kalshi offers web access and a separate $25/$25 new-user offer for eligible users.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Welcome offer · Polymarket US
Deposit $10, get a $50 trading bonus
New users: fund at least $10 in the Polymarket US app, enter the code, and get a $50 trading bonus.
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Play responsibly
Prediction markets are real-money trading and you can lose your full stake. 21+ recommended. If trading stops feeling fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or text 988.