What are the current Fed rate cut odds?

The June 2026 FOMC contracts have settled. The live four-way market has rolled to the September 15–16, 2026 meeting, where Kalshi and Polymarket both list -50bps, -25bps, no change, and +25bps contracts. Prices move hour to hour, so read them on the platform rather than from any article.

When is the next Fed meeting in 2026?

September 15–16, 2026, followed by October 27–28 and December 8–9. Each meeting gets its own set of prediction-market contracts that open weeks in advance and settle to the official FOMC statement.

What happened to the June 2026 rate contracts?

They expired with the June 16–17 statement. Winning contracts paid $1 and everything else paid $0. The settled market is still worth reading as a record of how accurate the pricing was going in.

Where can I trade Fed rate decisions?

Kalshi offers CFTC-regulated FOMC event contracts in USD — available to eligible U.S. users including Florida. Polymarket carries the same contracts in USD with deeper global liquidity and no platform fee.

How do Fed rate prediction markets settle?

Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle to the official FOMC statement released on rate-decision day. The contract matching the actual decision pays $1; all others pay $0. There is no discretionary judgment involved.

Are Fed rate contracts gambling?

Federally, Kalshi's Fed contracts are CFTC-regulated derivatives — the same legal category as futures and options, not gambling under U.S. commodities law. Availability still depends on Kalshi's jurisdictional and account eligibility rules, including in Florida.

Do Fed odds move faster than the news?

Usually, yes. Rate contracts reprice within seconds of a CPI print, a jobs report, or a Fed speech — often before commentary catches up, which is exactly why traders watch them as a live consensus gauge.

5 min read

Fed rate cut odds: the 2026 FOMC tracker

Reviewed by

Catie Di Stefano — Founder & Editor-in-Chief

15 years in regulated online gamblingHeld a New Jersey DGE vendor licenseLaunched Hard Rock NJ online CRM program (2018)

Last updated September 8, 2026 · rolled forward from the settled June FOMC contracts to the September 15–16 meeting

The June meeting is in the books. What matters now is the September 15–16 decision, where four separate contracts split the possible outcomes and reprice on every macro print between now and the statement.

Quick answer

The June 2026 FOMC contracts have settled, and the live four-way market has rolled to the September 15–16 meeting. Kalshi lists CFTC-regulated USD contracts on -50bps, -25bps, no change, and +25bps; Polymarket lists the same scenarios in USD. Read prices on the platform — they reprice within seconds of each CPI and jobs report.

Key takeaways

› June 2026 contracts have settled — the live market is now September 15–16.
› Four-way structure on both platforms: -50bps, -25bps, no change, +25bps.
› Remaining 2026 meetings: September 15–16, October 27–28, December 8–9.
› Kalshi (USD, CFTC-regulated) is the Florida-friendly venue; Polymarket US (USD) carries deeper global liquidity.
› Every contract settles mechanically to the official FOMC statement — no discretionary grading.

Claim the $50 bonus

What's live right now

As of early August 2026, the June FOMC contracts have expired and paid out. The active four-way market covers the September 15–16 meeting, with thinner books already open on October and December.

The practical read: the September contracts are the ones carrying real volume, because two CPI releases and two jobs reports land before the statement. That's a lot of repricing between now and settlement — which is where the opportunity is, and also the risk.

How the June market performed

Going into the June 16–17 meeting, the two-way race on Polymarket was between -25bps and no change, with a 50bp cut treated as a tail tied to a sharp labor-market deterioration and a hike priced as near-impossible. Combined 24-hour volume across the four contracts ran above $13M in the final week.

The settled contract is the record of what actually happened — worth pulling up on the platform, because comparing the final pre-statement price to the settlement tells you how well the crowd read that particular cycle. That calibration check matters more than any single forecast.

The four scenarios

Scenario	What it needs to happen	Typical liquidity
-50 bps cut	A clear labor-market break or credit event before the meeting	Thin until data turns
-25 bps cut	Cooling inflation with a softening but intact jobs picture	Deepest book
No change	Sticky core inflation, resilient employment	Deepest book
+25 bps hike	Inflation re-accelerating materially	Tail contract

The four prices must sum to roughly $1.00. Any meaningful gap between the sum and $1.00 — or between the two venues — is arbitrage.

Remaining 2026 meeting calendar

Meeting	Status
June 16–17, 2026	Settled
July 28–29, 2026	Settled
September 15–16, 2026	Live — main volume
October 27–28, 2026	Open, thin
December 8–9, 2026	Open, thin

Dates per the Federal Reserve's published FOMC calendar.

How to trade it

Directional: If you think the Fed cuts 25bp in September, buy YES on the -25bps contract and hold to settlement.

Event-driven: The largest single-day moves cluster on CPI and jobs-report mornings. Traders who want the move without the meeting risk enter after the print and exit the same week.

Hedged / cross-venue: Buy your scenario on the venue pricing it cheaper and sell it on the other when the two diverge. Kalshi–Polymarket spread trading is a known edge, and the fee difference matters — see our Kalshi fees and Polymarket fees breakdowns before sizing.

Settlement: The contract resolves to $1 if it matches the official FOMC statement, $0 otherwise. No grading disputes, no partial credit.

Welcome offer · Polymarket US

Deposit $10, get a $50 trading bonus

New users: fund at least $10 in the Polymarket US app, enter the code, and get a $50 trading bonus.

FLPREDICTSClaim the $50 bonusiOS app only — not available on desktop

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Polymarket: deposit $10 and get a $50 trading bonus with code FLPREDICTS

Trade $25, get $25

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Play responsibly

Prediction markets are real-money trading and you can lose your full stake. We recommend 21+. If trading stops feeling fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or text 988.

Reviewed by Catie Di Stefano. Every guide follows our editorial standards & review methodology. Affiliate links are disclosed under our affiliate disclosure.