Fed rate odds: the 2026 FOMC tracker

September ended the cutting debate: the Fed hiked. What matters now is the October 27–28 meeting, where separate contracts split the possible outcomes and reprice on every inflation and jobs print before the statement.

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The September hike and what's next

On September 16, 2026 the FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%–4.00%. All twelve voting members agreed, and it was the first increase in more than three years, with the statement pointing to elevated inflation. In the projections released alongside it, 16 of 18 officials expected another hike later in 2026.

The live markets now cover the October 27–28 meeting (decision on October 28) and December 8–9. The October CPI release and the September and October jobs reports land before the next statement, so expect the biggest repricing on those mornings.

How the June market performed

Going into the June 16–17 meeting, the two-way race on Polymarket was between -25bps and no change, with a 50bp cut treated as a tail tied to a sharp labor-market deterioration and a hike priced as near-impossible. Combined 24-hour volume across the four contracts ran above $13M in the final week.

The settled contract is the record of what actually happened — worth pulling up on the platform, because comparing the final pre-statement price to the settlement tells you how well the crowd read that particular cycle. That calibration check matters more than any single forecast.

The four scenarios

The four prices must sum to roughly $1.00. Any meaningful gap between the sum and $1.00 — or between the two venues — is arbitrage.

Remaining 2026 meeting calendar

Dates per the Federal Reserve's published FOMC calendar.

How to trade it

Directional: If you think the Fed hikes again in October, buy YES on the +25 bps contract and hold to settlement; if you think it pauses, buy no change.

Event-driven: The largest single-day moves cluster on CPI and jobs-report mornings. Traders who want the move without the meeting risk enter after the print and exit the same week.

Hedged / cross-venue: Buy your scenario on the venue pricing it cheaper and sell it on the other when the two diverge. Kalshi–Polymarket spread trading is a known edge, and the fee difference matters — see our Kalshi fees and Polymarket fees breakdowns before sizing.

Settlement: The contract resolves to $1 if it matches the official FOMC statement, $0 otherwise. No grading disputes, no partial credit.

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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Sources

• › Federal Reserve — FOMC statement, September 16, 2026 (opens in a new tab)
• › Federal Reserve — FOMC meeting calendar (opens in a new tab)
• › CFTC — event contracts overview (opens in a new tab)
• › Kalshi — Fed / FOMC markets (opens in a new tab)

Frequently asked questions

What did the Fed decide in September 2026?

On September 16, 2026 the FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in more than three years. All twelve voting members agreed. In the projections released with the decision, 16 of 18 officials expected another increase later in 2026.

When is the next Fed meeting?

October 27–28, 2026, with the decision on Wednesday, October 28. The last 2026 meeting is December 8–9. Each meeting has its own prediction-market contracts that settle to the official FOMC statement.

What are the Fed odds for October?

Kalshi and Polymarket list the October decision as separate contracts (for example hike, no change, cut). Prices move hour to hour, so read them on the platform rather than from a static article.

Where can I trade Fed rate decisions?

Kalshi offers CFTC-regulated FOMC event contracts in US dollars, available to eligible U.S. users including Florida. Polymarket US lists Fed markets in its app, also in dollars.

How do Fed rate prediction markets settle?

Both settle to the official FOMC statement released on decision day. The contract matching the actual decision pays $1; all others pay $0.

Are Fed rate contracts gambling?

Federally, Kalshi's Fed contracts are CFTC-regulated derivatives, the same legal category as futures and options, not gambling under U.S. commodities law. Availability still depends on account eligibility rules, including in Florida.

Do Fed odds move faster than the news?

Usually, yes. Rate contracts reprice within seconds of a CPI print, a jobs report or a Fed speech, often before commentary catches up.