What are the current Fed rate cut odds for June 2026?

Polymarket lists four separate June FOMC contracts: -50bps, -25bps, no change, and +25bps. As of mid-June, the -25bps and no-change markets are the most heavily traded, with combined volume above $11M. Live odds shift hour to hour.

Is the Fed cutting rates in June 2026?

The market consensus has been pricing a high probability of either a 25bp cut or no change. A 50bp cut is treated as a tail scenario tied to weaker labor data.

Where can I trade Fed rate decisions?

Kalshi offers CFTC-regulated FOMC event contracts in USD — best for U.S. residents. Polymarket carries the same contracts in USDC with deeper global liquidity and zero platform fee.

How do Fed rate prediction markets settle?

Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle to the official FOMC statement released on rate-decision day. The contract that matches the actual decision pays $1; others pay $0.

Are Fed rate contracts gambling?

Federally, Kalshi's Fed contracts are CFTC-regulated derivatives — the same category as futures and options. Not classified as gambling under U.S. commodities law.

5 min read · Updated June 2026

Fed rate cut odds: June 2026

Four separate Polymarket contracts track the June FOMC meeting — combined 24-hour volume above $13M. Here's how each is priced and how to trade it.

Key takeaways

› Four-way market: -50bps, -25bps, no change, +25bps.
› -25bps and no change have been the most heavily traded scenarios.
› Kalshi (USD, CFTC) and Polymarket (USDC) both list FOMC contracts.
› Settles to the official FOMC statement on decision day.
› Pair-trade: buy your view on one side, short the opposite for a defined-risk position.

The four scenarios

Scenario	Polymarket 24h vol
-50 bps cut	~$5.3M
-25 bps cut	~$2.8M
No change	~$2.8M
+25 bps hike	~$2.8M

Volumes as of mid-June 2026. The four prices must sum to roughly $1.00 — any meaningful gap is arbitrage.

How to trade it

Directional: If you think the Fed cuts 25bp, buy YES on the -25bps contract.

Hedged: Buy your scenario on one platform; sell the same scenario on the other if pricing diverges. Cross-venue arb between Kalshi and Polymarket is a known edge for active traders.

Settlement: The contract resolves to $1 if it matches the official FOMC statement, $0 otherwise.

Start trading in 2 minutes

Both platforms are free to sign up. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated USD. Polymarket settles in USDC.

Play responsibly

Prediction markets are real-money trading and you can lose your full stake. We recommend 21+. If trading stops feeling fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or text 988.

Fed rate cut odds: June 2026

The four scenarios

How to trade it

Related reading

Fed rate cut odds — FAQ