What are the recession odds for 2026?

Polymarket and Kalshi both list NBER-defined U.S. recession markets for 2026. Pricing has bounced between 15% and 35% through the first half of the year, driven by labor data and Fed policy expectations.

How is recession defined for these markets?

Kalshi's 2026 recession contract uses the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee's official recession declaration. Polymarket variants may use NBER or a two-consecutive-quarter GDP rule — read each market's resolution criteria.

When do recession contracts settle?

After the NBER officially dates a recession, or the market's deadline passes without one. NBER announcements often come months after the start of a recession, so settlement can lag.

Can I trade recession contracts in the U.S.?

Yes on Kalshi — CFTC-regulated and open to all U.S. residents. Polymarket access from the U.S. is restricted.

Are recession markets a good hedge?

They can be a cheap macro hedge for a stock portfolio, but read the resolution criteria carefully — payout depends on NBER, not just GDP prints.

4 min read · Updated June 2026

U.S. recession odds: 2026

2026 recession contracts have traded between 15% and 35% on Polymarket and Kalshi through the first half of the year. Here's how the contracts resolve and how to trade them.

Key takeaways

› Kalshi: CFTC-regulated U.S. recession contract using NBER's official declaration.
› Polymarket: parallel contracts, often with broader resolution criteria.
› Macro hedge: cheap insurance against a stock portfolio if NBER calls a recession.
› Resolution can lag — NBER often dates recessions months after they begin.
› Read each market's small print before sizing.

How resolution works

Kalshi's recession contract pays $1 if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares a recession with a start date in 2026. Otherwise $0. Polymarket variants may use NBER or a stricter two-consecutive-quarters-of-negative-GDP rule. Always check the resolution source in the market description.

Pair trades worth knowing

Long recession + long bonds: classic risk-off pairing.
Long recession + long Fed cut contracts: cuts and recessions tend to co-move.
Short recession + long equity index: a leveraged bull stance.

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Prediction markets are real-money trading and you can lose your full stake. We recommend 21+. If trading stops feeling fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or text 988.

U.S. recession odds: 2026

How resolution works

Pair trades worth knowing

Related reading

Recession odds — FAQ