Florida Senate odds 2026: Moody vs Nixon

The primaries are settled. Ashley Moody faces Angie Nixon for the rest of Marco Rubio's term, and September's polls disagree about how close it is. Here are the live prediction market prices, what moves them, and how to trade the race.

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The race in a paragraph

Marco Rubio left the Senate in January 2025 to become Secretary of State, and Governor DeSantis appointed then-Attorney General Ashley Moody to the seat. The November 3, 2026 special election decides who serves the rest of the term, through January 2029. On August 18 Moody won the Republican primary with about 80% of the vote, and state Rep. Angie Nixon of Jacksonville won the Democratic primary with about 56%, beating former National Security Council official Alex Vindman.

What the September polls say

• St. Pete Polls: Moody 45.2%, Nixon 44.8% among likely voters, effectively a tie.
• Quantus Insights: Moody 50%, Nixon 43%.
• Stetson University (September 14–21): Republicans hold double-digit leads in both the Senate and governor races.

Polls this far out disagree more than usual. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Florida since 2018, and Republicans hold a large voter-registration advantage.

What moves the market from here

• New polls: statewide polls from Stetson, USF and Mason-Dixon tend to move prices more than partisan releases.
• Fundraising: the October FEC pre-general reports show whether national money is coming into the race.
• Down-ballot link: the Senate and governor contracts (Donalds vs Jolly) move together, so holding both is close to one bigger position.
• Early voting: Florida publishes daily early-vote and mail-ballot returns by party in the final weeks.

Kalshi vs Polymarket for this race

Kalshi's Senate contract is a CFTC-regulated, dollar-settled "which party wins" market on web and mobile. Polymarket US lists the race in its iPhone app, also in dollars. Compare the price on both before you trade: the same outcome can differ by a few cents between venues.

Trade $25, get $25

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Sources

• › NBC News — Florida Senate primary results 2026
• › Stetson University — September 2026 Florida poll
• › Newsweek — St. Pete Polls: Moody and Nixon tied
• › Florida Division of Elections
• › Kalshi — election markets

Related reading

• › Florida governor odds 2026: Donalds vs Jolly
• › DeSantis 2028 odds
• › Kalshi vs Polymarket
• › Florida politics market hub

Frequently asked questions

Which Florida Senate seat is up in 2026?

The seat Marco Rubio held until he became Secretary of State. Ashley Moody was appointed to it in January 2025, and the November 3, 2026 special election decides who serves the rest of the term, through January 2029. Rick Scott's seat is not on the 2026 ballot; he was re-elected in 2024.

Who is running in the 2026 Florida Senate election?

Republican Sen. Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon, a state representative from Jacksonville. Both won their August 18 primaries: Moody with about 80% of the Republican vote, Nixon with about 56% against Alex Vindman.

Who is favored to win?

September 2026 polls range from a tie (St. Pete Polls: Moody 45.2%, Nixon 44.8%) to a clear Moody lead (Quantus Insights: 50% to 43%; Stetson University: double digits). Check the live widget on this page for current Kalshi and Polymarket prices.

Can I trade the Florida Senate race from Florida?

Yes. Kalshi lists CFTC-regulated Senate contracts in US dollars, and Polymarket US lists election markets in its iPhone app. Both are available to eligible Florida users.

When is the election?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Contracts settle on the certified result.