Which Florida Senate seat is up in 2026?

The seat currently held by Senator Rick Scott is up in November 2026. Scott has signaled he'll seek a second term, but the primary field and Democratic challenger remain in flux — check the live widget for current market prices.

Who is favored to win the 2026 Florida Senate race?

Prediction markets have consistently priced the Republican nominee as a heavy favorite (roughly 70–80%). Florida's rightward shift since 2020 and the state's Cuban-American vote have made Democratic paths narrow.

Can I trade Florida Senate markets from Florida?

Yes. Kalshi offers CFTC-regulated Senate contracts nationwide, including for Florida residents. Polymarket runs deeper markets on primary candidates and vote-margin questions but operates under a different framework.

What are the biggest Florida Senate markets right now?

The two most-traded contracts are the party-control head-to-head (Republican vs Democrat) and the individual GOP primary winner. Vote-margin and turnout markets also appear closer to Election Day.

When is the 2026 Florida Senate election?

The Florida partisan primary is August 18, 2026, and the general election is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

6 min read · Updated July 4, 2026

Florida Senate prediction markets 2026

Reviewed by

Catie Di Stefano — Founder & Editor-in-Chief

15 years in regulated online gamblingHeld a New Jersey DGE vendor licenseLaunched Hard Rock NJ online CRM program (2018)

Rick Scott's seat is up. Prediction markets say the GOP holds it — but by how much, and against whom? Live Kalshi and Polymarket prices, plus the full platform breakdown.

Key takeaways

› Republicans are ~75% favored to hold the Florida Senate seat.
› Rick Scott is the incumbent; primary challenger risk is priced but small.
› Democratic nominee TBD — path to victory requires a top-tier recruit.
› Kalshi has the cleanest CFTC-regulated head-to-head USD contracts.
› Polymarket has deeper primary and vote-margin liquidity.

Live Florida Senate markets

Live · polls every 60s

Updated 0s ago

2026 Election Day countdown

121d 23h to Election Day

Florida Governor · leader

polymarket

Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

96% 0$146,177

Florida Senate · leader

polymarket

Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

86% 0$22,013

Kalshi

No open markets on Kalshi.

Polymarket

The race in a paragraph

Sen. Rick Scott, elected 2018 and re-elected 2024… wait, no — Scott's seat comes up again in 2026 after his 2018 win (six-year term). He has signaled a re-election run. Primary challenges from the right are possible but market-priced as low probability. On the Democratic side, no clear top-tier recruit has emerged as of mid-2026; markets discount any Democrat by 25+ points.

What moves the market

Recruitment: A top Democratic recruit (former Rep. Val Demings, or a Florida mayor) would tighten the market by 5–10 points.
Presidential coattails: Any 2028 primary drama that hurts the GOP brand can bleed into Senate contracts.
Fundraising deadlines: Q3 and Q4 FEC filings historically produce sharp intraday moves.
Polling releases: Public polls from Mason-Dixon and USF are treated as high-signal by traders.

Kalshi vs Polymarket for Senate

Kalshi's Senate contracts are CFTC-regulated, settle in USD, and don't require crypto onboarding — the right choice for a straightforward "who wins the seat" bet. Polymarket goes deeper: candidate-specific primary markets, vote-margin markets, and turnout contracts that Kalshi doesn't list. For most Floridians, opening both accounts and trading each platform where it's deepest is the winning move.

Start trading in 2 minutes

Both platforms are free to sign up. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated USD. Polymarket settles in USDC.

Play responsibly

Prediction markets are real-money trading and you can lose your full stake. We recommend 21+. If trading stops feeling fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or text 988.

Reviewed by Catie Di Stefano. Every guide follows our editorial standards & review methodology. Affiliate links are disclosed under our affiliate disclosure.

Florida Senate prediction markets 2026

Live Florida Senate markets

The race in a paragraph

What moves the market

Kalshi vs Polymarket for Senate

Related reading

Florida Senate 2026 — FAQ