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Florida governor odds 2026

Catie Di Stefano, Founder & Editor-in-Chief
Reviewed by
Catie Di Stefano — Founder & Editor-in-Chief

Last updated · re-checked 11 days out from the August 18 Florida primary

Ron DeSantis is term-limited. Byron Donalds is the market favorite. Here's the live prediction-market picture of the 2026 Florida GOP primary and general election — and how to trade it on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Quick answer

Florida's primary is August 18, 2026 — 11 days away — and the general election resolves November 3. Byron Donalds has led the GOP primary market all year, and Republicans remain favorites to hold the governor's mansion. Kalshi lists the CFTC-regulated contract in USD; Polymarket runs a USDC version with deeper candidate-level liquidity.

Key takeaways

  • › Byron Donalds leads the GOP primary market, with Wilton Simpson second.
  • › Republicans are heavy favorites (~70%) to hold the governor's mansion.
  • › Polymarket has the deepest primary liquidity; Kalshi has USD head-to-heads.
  • › Primary: August 18, 2026. General: November 3, 2026.
  • › DeSantis cannot run again — this is Florida's first open GOP gubernatorial primary since 2018.
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Live 2026 Florida governor markets

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Kalshi

Polymarket

Two weeks out: what to watch

The primary is August 18. This is the window where primary contracts historically move most — volume concentrates in the final 10 days as late endorsements, ad buys and the last round of public polling land.

  • Endorsement risk: a single Trump statement has repriced this market by double digits before. It is the largest known unknown left.
  • Turnout: a mid-August primary in Florida is a low-turnout, high-intensity electorate — favorable to the candidate with the most motivated base rather than the broadest polling lead.
  • Liquidity: spreads tighten into primary week, then the primary contracts settle and volume rotates into the November head-to-head.
  • After August 18: expect the general-election contract to reprice immediately on the nominee, so if you hold a November position, know how the primary outcome affects it.

Official dates and candidate filings are published by the Florida Division of Elections — verify there before sizing a position.

The GOP primary field

  • Byron Donalds (US Rep., FL-19): Trump-aligned, high name recognition after 2024 VP shortlist. Consistent market leader.
  • Wilton Simpson (FL Ag Commissioner): Former Senate President, deep donor network, ag/rural strength.
  • Jeanette Nuñez (Lt. Governor): DeSantis-adjacent institutional pick; polling behind Donalds and Simpson.
  • Field: James Uthmeier (AG), Paul Renner (former House Speaker), plus long-shots.

General election outlook

Florida has trended firmly red since 2020 — Trump carried it by 13 points in 2024. Prediction markets price the Republican nominee as a heavy favorite (roughly 65–75% depending on Democratic recruitment). Any Democratic upset scenario likely runs through a well-funded former statewide official.

How to trade it

  1. Primary candidate contracts: Polymarket for granular candidate odds.
  2. Party-control head-to-head: Kalshi for CFTC-regulated USD settlement.
  3. Watch endorsements: A Trump endorsement historically moves the primary market 10–20 points overnight.
  4. Watch polling: Public polls drop weekly starting in April 2026 — markets front-run leaks.

Start trading in 2 minutes

Both platforms are free to sign up. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated USD. Polymarket settles in USDC.

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Play responsibly

Prediction markets are real-money trading and you can lose your full stake. We recommend 21+. If trading stops feeling fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or text 988.

Reviewed by Catie Di Stefano. Every guide follows our editorial standards & review methodology. Affiliate links are disclosed under our affiliate disclosure.

Sources

Related reading

Florida governor 2026 — FAQ

Short, direct answers — the stuff Florida players actually ask.

Congressman Byron Donalds has led most prediction-market prices through 2026, with Wilton Simpson and a field of state officials trailing. Prices move sharply with each Trump endorsement rumor and polling release — check the live widget above.

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