Florida governor odds 2026: Donalds vs Jolly

Ron DeSantis is term-limited, and the matchup to replace him is set: Byron Donalds against David Jolly. Here's the live prediction-market picture, what the September polls say, and how to trade the race.

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How we got here

Byron Donalds led the Republican primary market for most of the year and won the nomination on August 18. On the Democratic side, David Jolly, a former Republican congressman from Pinellas County, won the nomination. The general election is a two-person race for an open seat: DeSantis cannot seek a third consecutive term.

What the September polls say

• Stetson University (September 14–21, 830 Floridians): Donalds 51%, Jolly 39%.
• St. Pete Polls (September 15–17, likely voters): Donalds 44%, Jolly 43%.
• Change Research (September 7–9): Jolly ticket 47%, Donalds ticket 44%.

Florida has voted Republican statewide in every race since 2018, and Donald Trump carried it by 13 points in 2024. That history is why a single close poll moves the market less than you might expect.

What moves the market from here

• Debates and polls: nonpartisan statewide polls are the biggest scheduled movers.
• Endorsements and money: national party spending in October shows which side thinks the race is close.
• Early voting: Florida publishes daily early-vote and mail-ballot returns by party.
• The Senate race: governor and Senate contracts move together, so treat them as related positions.

How to trade it

1. Kalshi: CFTC-regulated "which party wins" contract in US dollars, on web and mobile.
2. Polymarket US: the same race in the iPhone app, in dollars.
3. Compare first: the same outcome can be priced a few cents apart on the two venues.

Trade $25, get $25

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Sources

• › NBC News — Florida governor primary results 2026
• › Stetson University — September 2026 Florida poll
• › Florida Politics — St. Pete Polls: Donalds 44%, Jolly 43%
• › Change Research — September 2026 Florida poll
• › Florida Division of Elections
• › Kalshi — election markets

Related reading

• › Florida Senate odds 2026: Moody vs Nixon
• › DeSantis 2028 odds
• › Kalshi vs Polymarket for elections
• › Florida politics market hub

Frequently asked questions

Who is running for Florida governor in 2026?

Republican Byron Donalds, the U.S. representative from Southwest Florida, against Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman. Both won their parties' August 18, 2026 primaries. Ron DeSantis is term-limited.

Who is favored, Donalds or Jolly?

September 2026 polls disagree: Stetson University had Donalds ahead 51% to 39%, St. Pete Polls had it 44% to 43%, and Change Research had the Jolly ticket ahead 47% to 44%. Check the live widget on this page for current Kalshi and Polymarket prices.

Can I trade the Florida governor race from Florida?

Yes. Kalshi lists CFTC-regulated governor contracts in US dollars, and Polymarket US lists the race in its iPhone app. Both are open to eligible Florida users.

When is the election?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The winner takes office in January 2027.

Is DeSantis running again?

No. Ron DeSantis is term-limited and leaves office in January 2027, which is why markets on his 2028 presidential future are active.