NFL prediction markets 2026

Three weeks in, the order book has had a lot to digest: a 2-1 start in Jacksonville and 0-3 starts in Miami and Tampa. Here's where each Florida team stands, the next games on the calendar, and how to trade them on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Claim the $25 bonus (opens in a new tab)

How an NFL contract works

An NFL event contract is one question with two sides. "Will the Jaguars beat the Panthers?" trades in cents: buy YES at 58¢ and you collect $1 if they win, nothing if they don't. The price is the market's probability — 58¢ means the book thinks 58%.

Two things follow from that, and they're why traders prefer this format to a betting slip. First, the cost you pay is the spread plus any disclosed platform fee, shown before you confirm. Second, and bigger: you can sell. If you bought Jacksonville at 42¢ in July and the number is 58¢ today, you can close for a 16¢ gain per contract before anyone runs a play.

Same structure applies to spreads and totals, which Polymarket lists as separate yes/no books ("Spread −2.5", "O/U 39.5"), and to season-long questions like "Will Tampa Bay make the postseason?"

The next games for each Florida team

Records after Week 3 of the 2026 season, and the next two games on each schedule. Game contracts open during the week before kickoff on Kalshi and Polymarket; check the live price there.

Bye weeks: Dolphins Week 6, Jaguars Week 7, Buccaneers Week 10.

See live game prices on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Trade $25, get $25 on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Miami Dolphins: 0-3

Miami's 24-10 loss at Kansas City left the Dolphins 0-3. Historically, very few NFL teams that start 0-3 reach the playoffs, so the season-long playoff and AFC East contracts are now long shots, and the weekly game markets carry most of the Miami volume. Next: at Minnesota on October 4, then Cincinnati at home on October 11.

Deeper dive: Miami Dolphins odds 2026.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0-3

The Buccaneers fell to 0-3 with a 23-16 loss to Minnesota. The NFC South has been one of the league's weaker divisions in recent years, which is the main reason Tampa's division contract hasn't collapsed the way a playoff contract usually does after an 0-3 start. Next: Green Bay at home on October 4, then at Dallas on Thursday, October 8.

Deeper dive: Buccaneers odds 2026.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-1

Jacksonville is Florida's only winning team after three weeks, at 2-1 in the AFC South. The Jaguars' playoff and division contracts are the Florida season-long books with real two-way action. Next: at Cincinnati on October 4, then Philadelphia at home on October 11.

Deeper dive: Jaguars odds 2026.

Florida's season-long board

Each team has four season-long contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket: make the playoffs, win the division, win the conference and win Super Bowl LXI (February 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium). The prices sum across the league to about $1 per question, so a team's contract falls as others rise. Read current prices on the platforms; they move after every Sunday.

Trading the regular season without getting burned

• › Injury reports move prices. Wednesday-to-Friday practice reports and inactive lists 90 minutes before kickoff are the biggest scheduled movers.
• › Use limit orders. Books thin out for early-season games between struggling teams; don't pay the full spread.
• › Don't overreact to one Sunday. Three games is a small sample; season contracts already price the standings.
• › Check the resolution rules. Ties, postponements and overtime are handled differently across venues. Read the rules tab before you buy.

Where Florida traders should trade this season

Kalshi if you want a CFTC-regulated exchange with USD deposits from a bank account or debit card, plus U.S. tax documentation. It's the simpler on-ramp and the safer default for anyone new to event contracts.

Polymarket if you want depth and breadth: every Florida player ladder quoted above lives there, plus per-game spreads and totals and the season series books. It trades in US dollars through the Polymarket US app.

Most Florida traders end up with both — Kalshi for size and settlement comfort, Polymarket for the niche player books. Compare them properly in Kalshi vs Polymarket.

Trade $25, get $25 on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Fund Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Rebet social picks (opens in a new tab)

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Trade $25, get $25 (opens in a new tab)

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Sources

• › Polymarket — live NFL markets (opens in a new tab)
• › Kalshi — sports event contracts (opens in a new tab)
• › NFL.com — official 2026 schedule
• › Miami Dolphins — official site
• › Tampa Bay Buccaneers — official site
• › Jacksonville Jaguars — official site
• › CFTC — event contracts overview
• › Florida Council on Compulsory Gambling — 888-ADMIT-IT

Related reading

• › Miami Dolphins odds 2026
• › Buccaneers odds 2026
• › Polymarket NFL markets explained
• › Super Bowl odds on Polymarket
• › Is Kalshi legal in Florida?

Frequently asked questions

Can Florida residents trade NFL prediction markets?

Yes. Kalshi lists CFTC-regulated NFL event contracts and Polymarket US is available to eligible Florida users through its app. These are yes/no contracts that settle on the official result.

How are the Dolphins, Buccaneers and Jaguars doing in 2026?

After Week 3 the Jaguars are 2-1, and the Dolphins and Buccaneers are both 0-3. Season-long playoff and division contracts reprice after every game; read current prices on the platforms.

What are the next Florida games?

Week 4 on October 4: Dolphins at Vikings, Packers at Buccaneers and Jaguars at Bengals. Week 5: Buccaneers at Cowboys on October 8, then Bengals at Dolphins and Eagles at Jaguars on October 11.

How is a prediction market different from a parlay?

You can exit before the game ends. A contract bought at 41¢ can be sold at 60¢ once the market moves, locking in a gain without waiting for the final whistle.

Are NFL contract winnings taxable in Florida?

Florida has no state income tax, but federal rules still apply. Keep records for activity on each platform and speak to a qualified tax professional about your situation.