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Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

24h volume

$95K

Total volume

$11.3M

Resolves

Jun 30, 2026

Live odds

OutcomeYESNO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 20260¢100¢Trade

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As of the latest update, "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?" is trading at 0% YES on Polymarket. Odds move continuously — see the live table above.

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