Florida Hurricane Prediction Markets

Quick answer

Yes — Florida residents can trade hurricane event contracts on Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, USD-settled) and on Polymarket. Contracts resolve on official NOAA National Hurricane Center advisories, not private forecasts, and peak season runs mid-August through September.

Trade $25, get $25 on Kalshi

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Is Kalshi legal in Florida?

Quick answer

Florida hurricane contracts are CFTC-regulated and open to eligible Kalshi users. You can trade named-storm counts, Florida landfall, major-hurricane probability and Atlantic ACE in USD. We are now inside the season's peak window — mid-August through late September — when these markets are most liquid and reprice fastest.

Season status · August 2026

› Peak window: August 20 – September 30, historically the busiest stretch of the Atlantic season.
› Statistical peak date: September 10, per NOAA climatology.
› Season runs: June 1 – November 30, with roughly 90% of major-hurricane activity after August 1.
› What this means for pricing: landfall contracts carry the widest daily swings now — a single model shift can move a contract 20 points in an afternoon.
› Where to verify storms: the National Hurricane Center is the settlement-grade source, not social media.

Live contract counts and prices in the widget below refresh automatically every 60 seconds.

Season

Jun 1 – Nov 30

2026 NOAA forecast

17–25 named

Major hurricanes

4–7 expected

FL landfall risk

Above-normal

Welcome offer · Polymarket US

Deposit $10, get a $25 trading bonus

New users: fund at least $10 in the Polymarket US app, enter the code, and get a $25 trading bonus.

FLPREDICTS

Claim the $25 bonus

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Polymarket: deposit $10 and get a $25 trading bonus with code FLPREDICTS

Live · auto-refreshed

Open weather & hurricane markets

Live from Kalshi & Polymarket

No live weather markets right now. Check back as hurricane season ramps up — or browse all markets on Kalshi.

Why Florida dominates U.S. hurricane markets

Florida sees more hurricane landfalls than any other state — roughly 40% of all U.S. landfalls since 1851. That exposure makes Florida-specific weather contracts among the highest-volume markets on Kalshi during the Atlantic season.

Whether you're forecasting from a Tampa balcony or just want a sharper view than the cable-news cone of uncertainty, prediction markets aggregate real money from meteorologists, traders, and locals into a live probability.

Common Florida hurricane contracts

›Florida landfall this season — any hurricane making landfall on FL coast between June and November.
›Major hurricane (Cat 3+) landfall in FL — settles YES if a Category 3 or higher hits.
›Named storms total — over/under contracts on full-season named-storm counts.
›Storm-specific landfall location — once a system forms, markets often open on where it makes landfall.
›Atlantic ACE total — Accumulated Cyclone Energy, the standard intensity-weighted season metric.

Storm safety first

Trading is for entertainment. If a storm is approaching your area, follow NWS and local emergency-management guidance — not market prices. Prediction markets are not insurance and shouldn't influence evacuation decisions.

Trade the Sunshine State storm season

Kalshi runs the deepest CFTC-regulated U.S. hurricane event contracts. USD-denominated and available to eligible users; new users can trade $25 and get $25 with code FLPREDICTS, subject to terms.

Trade $25, get $25 on Kalshi

Sources

Frequently asked questions

Can Floridians legally trade hurricane markets?

Kalshi's hurricane and weather event contracts are CFTC-regulated and available to eligible Florida users. Settlement is in USD; confirm eligibility and market availability before trading.

What hurricane markets are available?

Kalshi lists contracts on named-storm counts, hurricane landfall (Florida and other states), major hurricane probability, and total ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for the Atlantic season. New markets open through hurricane season (June 1 – Nov 30).

How are hurricane market prices set?

Prices are set by traders, not bookmakers. A contract trading at 62¢ for YES means the crowd implies a 62% probability the event happens. Prices update as NOAA forecasts, model runs, and live storm data come in.

Can I hedge my home or business with these?

Some Floridians use hurricane markets as an informal hedge against storm-season disruption, but these contracts are not a substitute for property insurance. They settle in cash to your trading account, not as claim payouts.

Which platform has the best hurricane markets?

Kalshi is the clear leader for U.S. weather event contracts — federally regulated, USD-denominated, and the deepest liquidity on hurricane and named-storm markets. Polymarket lists some weather markets but the depth is lower.

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Paid partnership with OG. Terms and conditions apply. Trading derivatives involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Availability subject to jurisdictional limitations. For more information, visit: OG.com.
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