What hurricane markets are available?

Kalshi lists contracts on named-storm counts, hurricane landfall (Florida and other states), major hurricane probability, and total ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for the Atlantic season. New markets open through hurricane season (June 1 – Nov 30).

How are hurricane market prices set?

Prices are set by traders, not bookmakers. A contract trading at 62¢ for YES means the crowd implies a 62% probability the event happens. Prices update as NOAA forecasts, model runs, and live storm data come in.

Can I hedge my home or business with these?

Some Floridians use hurricane markets as an informal hedge against storm-season disruption, but these contracts are not a substitute for property insurance. They settle in cash to your trading account, not as claim payouts.

Which platform has the best hurricane markets?

Kalshi is the clear leader for U.S. weather event contracts — federally regulated, USD-denominated, and the deepest liquidity on hurricane and named-storm markets. Polymarket lists some weather markets but the depth is lower.

Atlantic Season 2026 · Live

Florida hurricane
prediction markets

Trade live odds on Florida hurricane landfall, named-storm counts, and Atlantic season severity. CFTC-regulated, USD-denominated, and legal in Florida.

Trade hurricane markets on Kalshi Is Kalshi legal in Florida?

Season

Jun 1 – Nov 30

2026 NOAA forecast

17–25 named

Major hurricanes

4–7 expected

FL landfall risk

Above-normal

Live · auto-refreshed

Open weather & hurricane markets

Live from Kalshi & Polymarket

No live weather markets right now. Check back as hurricane season ramps up — or browse all markets on Kalshi.

Why Florida dominates U.S. hurricane markets

Florida sees more hurricane landfalls than any other state — roughly 40% of all U.S. landfalls since 1851. That exposure makes Florida-specific weather contracts among the highest-volume markets on Kalshi during the Atlantic season.

Whether you're forecasting from a Tampa balcony or just want a sharper view than the cable-news cone of uncertainty, prediction markets aggregate real money from meteorologists, traders, and locals into a live probability.

Common Florida hurricane contracts

›Florida landfall this season — any hurricane making landfall on FL coast between June and November.
›Major hurricane (Cat 3+) landfall in FL — settles YES if a Category 3 or higher hits.
›Named storms total — over/under contracts on full-season named-storm counts.
›Storm-specific landfall location — once a system forms, markets often open on where it makes landfall.
›Atlantic ACE total — Accumulated Cyclone Energy, the standard intensity-weighted season metric.

Storm safety first

Trading is for entertainment. If a storm is approaching your area, follow NWS and local emergency-management guidance — not market prices. Prediction markets are not insurance and shouldn't influence evacuation decisions.

Florida hurricane markets — FAQ

Short, direct answers — the stuff Florida players actually ask.

Yes. Kalshi's hurricane and weather event contracts are CFTC-regulated and legal in all 50 states, including Florida. Real USD payouts, no FL-specific restrictions.

Trade the Sunshine State storm season

Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated home for U.S. hurricane event contracts. USD-denominated, available statewide, free to join.

Open a Kalshi account